Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Intro: Forecast of Suicides and Homicides



Data on annual gun-related suicides and homicides, per 100,000 people, were collected by Australian authorities, for a period of 90 years from 1915 to 2004.
The figure above shows annual gun-related suicides and homicides per 100,000, over a period of 90 years, from 1915 to 2004.
My forecast (95% interval) for 2005 are 0.8 suicides and 0.15 homicides, with 95% confidence intervals of (0.7, 0.9) and (0.1, 0.2), respectively. For 2014, I forecast 0.8 suicides and 0.15 homicides, with 95% confidence intervals of (0.5, 1.0), and (0, 0.3), respectively.

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